Over the past 24 to 48 hours, EUR/USD fluctuated between 1.16085 and 1.16167, closing yesterday near 1.16146, reflecting relatively stable price action. Despite the European Central Bank (ECB) delivering its first rate hike since 2023 last week, the euro failed to gain substantial strength and rather showed profit-taking signs. Market attention has shifted towards Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, chaired for the first time by Kevin Warsh, where the expectation is mostly for a hold in rates, although a hike is still priced in by some investors. This has limited EUR/USD’s movement within a tight range.
Meanwhile in Japan, the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) historic first rate increase to 1% in three decades resulted in minimal changes to the yen’s value against the dollar, as the move was already priced in by markets. This has contributed to the US dollar’s steadiness, limiting its impact on EUR/USD. Additionally, uncertainty surrounding stalled US-Iran ceasefire talks has dampened euro sentiment. For the average investor, this means that despite the ECB’s proactive rate hike, global geopolitical tensions combined with cautious Fed policy expectations are keeping the euro-dollar pair in a holding pattern in the near term.
The daily chart of EURUSD shows a downward trend forming since the recent highs, with prices trading below the critical 200-day EMA at 1.16709, signaling a loss of longer-term bullish momentum. The moving averages act as resistance, the Bollinger Bands are narrowing indicating decreasing volatility, and the MACD hovering near the zero line suggests equilibrium in buyer and seller strength. Overall, the pair is developing a descending channel over weeks, implying continued selling pressure and risk of further retracement in the medium term.
In the short term, EURUSD on the hourly chart has been oscillating within a range of 1.16 to 1.165 over the past 3-5 days. Recent attempts to break above mid-term moving averages have failed. The MACD shows a bearish crossover while the RSI is gently below 50, signaling slight strengthening in short-term bearish momentum. The pair tested the lower Bollinger Band before pulling back, indicating support but maintaining a consolidative structure. Watching the near-term support around 1.16 is crucial for immediate trade setups.
Technical Trend: The current trend is cautiously consolidating with a slight bearish bias, indicating a phase of sideways to moderate downward price movement.
Technically, EURUSD faces significant resistance near its 200-day EMA level, with the daily chart showing a descending channel and a bearish MACD crossover. The hourly RSI levels near 40-50 range further confirm short-term bearish bias. Recent daily candlesticks formed hammer-like shadows at lows, suggesting tentative buyers attempting to build support zones. Key focus remains on the 1.16 support: a break below could trigger deeper declines, whereas a sustained hold may lead to consolidation or bounce attempts above 1.167 resistance.Today’s economic calendar features key data mostly from China and Japan, including Chinese residential building prices and industrial production, as well as Japan’s BoJ rate decision and press conference. Although these influence global sentiment, none of the releases constitute a major direct catalyst for EURUSD. Eurozone economic updates, such as Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment rebound, provide some support for the euro, while mixed US data like export prices and housing stats add uncertainty. Overall, no significant event today is expected to directly shift EURUSD price dramatically.
Resistance & Support
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